While the process is designed to produce scenarios, the learning that occurs through the scenario development process may actually be more valuable than the specific scenarios developed. Apart from illustrating the basic steps and aims of scenario planning, various psychological challenges are discussed from overconfidence and. Scenario thinking is both a process and an ongoing approach to strategic thinking. Scenario building can be described as a story which is based on the analysis and understanding of current and historic trends and events. When scenario planning has worked well, it has proved enormously useful to a wide range of organizations as a tool for making decisions under uncertainty. It is used by organizations as a tool to visualize possible future events and conditions that may affect them and take precautionary measures to control the impact. Scenario planning comes out of war game analysis from the 1950s and 1960s. Applied to policy decisions, this concept of options analysis seeks to estimate the value of creating a new real option. A scenario planning approach will allow us to plan with the uncertain and evolving scientific evidence eg climate change science plan making requires a process and a methodology that. Simultaneously, it overcomes the weaknesses of traditional scenario planning by offering a systematic process to scenario creation that is build on specific. A scenario planning process is a planning effort at its core, and planning efforts have different types of stakeholders. First popularized by shell in the early 1970s, the approach should be a natural complement to other ways of developing strategyespecially when executives are as concerned about geopolitical dynamics as many are today. The future is unknowable, yet we choose to devote a lot of resources and effort to discussing and studying possibilities before we make decisions about new directions or new investments.
The discipline best suited for this work is called scenario planning. The authors, experienced in case study design, development, and method for teaching in an mba program, used the case study approach to create a scenario planning strategy to analyze a companys. Schoemaker is the chairman of decision strategies international, inc. The development of sets of narrative scenarios helps to identify possible pathways towards a. Scenario planning is a widely used strategic planning tool. The process begins by considering factors that might bring about change in the world, such as technology, social change, and environmental change. It includes a consistent description of possible future situations. Forecasts using quantitative modeling can be valuable in identifying risks and can be used in conjunction with scenarios. Nov 18, 2019 scenario planning focuses on an outlook for the future. In simple terms, a scenario is an internally consistent account of how the business environment, the external environment, in which an organisation operates might develop and change over time. Obviously, such an event would never be a core scenario.
Early on in a scenario planning process, it is critical to identify which individuals and groups should take part at various stages of the project. It assists them with thinking, in advance, about the many ways the future may unfold and how they can be responsive, resilient, and effective, as the future becomes reality. The scenarios based approach to strategic planning is an open and creative approach that considers multiple strategy options a\. Sensitivity is still an issue and most accounts focus on aspects of the scenarios process and. However, the principles of scenario planning can be extremely useful in increasing the effectiveness of project management. A scenariobased approach to strategic planning integrating. Normative scenarios how can a specific target be reached. While the process is designed to produce scenarios, the learning that occurs through the scenario development process may actually. What are the roles of scenario planning in project management. Scenario planning templates scenario planning examples. Shell worked with the new york times to illustrate how cleaner transportation fits into shell s sky scenario a challenging, possible pathway for the world to meet the aims of the paris agreement. Jun 22, 2015 according to schwartz, the scenario process entails thinking about the most remote and complex array of factors which affect any decision. The primary objective of the workshop was to help acadia senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on uptodate climate science and.
Scenario planning a tool for navigating strategic risk. The acadia national park climate change scenario planning workshop summary 4. For an organization, the scenario process offers a way of thinking creatively yet systematically about possible future environments, and of developing strategies and then testing them for these environments. Scenario planning is a process to support decisionmaking that helps. The authors, experienced in case study design, development, and method for teaching in an mba. This report sets out the approach that has been taken to developing the tool, as well an outline of the tool itself.
Vince cable, secretary of state for business, united kingdom all of our toughest problems, from climate change to inequality, have. It is also referred to as scenario analysis and scenario thinking. The psp approach has been documented, implemented in kenya, ghana and. According to schwartz, the scenario process entails thinking about the most remote and complex array of factors which affect any decision.
Different planning situations where scenarios are useful. Challenges in using scenario planning for defense strategy january 30, 2018 dr. Using scenario planning to prepare for uncertainty in. Jun 09, 2018 seasonal climate information for resilient decisionmaking participatory scenario planning psp for seasonal climate forecast decision making is an approach to collaborative design and delivery of seasonal usercentred climate information services developed by care internationals adaptation learning programme alp.
Redmer regent university scenario planning is a strategic planning method that organizations use to develop flexible longterm plans. Michael fitzsimmons lawrence freedman and colin gray are two of the most famous contemporary scholars of military strategy. In current management philosophy, the benefits behind a participative management approach also apply to scenario planning. While the outcomes of scenario planning are unique to each community or organization, there is a general process that can be followed. Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning mckinsey. However, making predictions about the future is very difficult and this is why organizations create a variety of possible future scenarios. Ive included a very brief list of the 8 steps in developing scenarios. This is where the s2m strategic framework comes into play, and scenario planning is an excellent toolprocess we use to help companies adapt to multiple future scenarios in uncertain environments as described above. Scenario planning is a disciplined process for developing alternative views about an organizations external future by analysing key uncertainties that can signi. Scenario thinking ultimately concerns the organization itself.
Scenario planning will be new for many, so identifying champions within agencies and planning offices that can help advance planning and uphold a collaborative environment is essential. This is divided into three macro characteristics goals, design and. Scenario planning is a disciplined method for imagining possible futures that companies have applied to a great range of issues. Examples of scenario planning applications nps 20 planning and decision making assateague island national seashore used scenarios to inform its general management plan, specifically exploring alternatives to vulnerable operations and infrastructure subject to sea level rise and storms. Scenario development requires interactive and participative processes mietzner and reger, 2005. At its core, scenario planning creates multiple, purposefully. The degree of employee participation in any librarys scenario planning process will depend on the purpose which the process is striving towards, the type of organisation and its leadership. Augment your planning process with scenario planning cdm. To get the most out of your tarot reading, i first need you to focus your intention this concentrates the energy on the universe to answer the questions that you most desire the answers for.
Augment your planning process with scenario planning cdm smith. Whether scenario planning is voluntary or mandatory for a metropolitan area, this process can help metropolitan areas make progress on a range of community goals, community needs and benefits, including ghg emission reduction. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. The scenario planning process usually unfolds according to an orderly, methodical eightstep process. South africa, the author describes how to build scenarios in a stepbystep process and how to use the resulting stories to plan a companys future.
Scenario planning is a strategic planning tool or method for improving decision making against a background of possible future environments. It has since been adopted by many of the most profitable and sustainable organizations around the world. Seasonal climate information for resilient decisionmaking participatory scenario planning psp for seasonal climate forecast decision making is an approach to collaborative design and delivery of seasonal usercentred climate information services developed by care internationals adaptation learning programme alp. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence the original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers. Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible longterm plans. They wrote the book scenario planning the link between future and strategy where they explain the process that they use to create scenarios. The purpose of this is to understand different future scenarios of transport and landuse in scotland.
To be a bit more precise in this matter, we can say that it is the basic method which the businesses these days use to find out the certain uncertainties and the. It is a method with which organizations can form an idea of possible future scenarios and how these may affect their strategic objectives. Scenario planning process report to help with the consideration of different future scenarios of transport for scotland a scenario planning tool has been developed. Scenario planners in general do not start with a narrow focus, doing so increases the chances of missing key determinants of future. Jul 18, 2017 this is where the s2m strategic framework comes into play, and scenario planning is an excellent tool process we use to help companies adapt to multiple future scenarios in uncertain environments as described above. In this capacity, a scenario set is entitled to perform two interrelated functions of bridging and cognitive stretching. Scenario planning is a strategic planning method that organizations use to develop flexible longterm plans. Scenario planning enables professionals, and the public, to respond dynamically to an unknown future. In 1965, a time when quantitative, computerdriven planning was very much in vogue, royal dutch shell started experimenting with a different way of looking into the future. Like scenario planning, its chief value lies in the thought process, not the numbers. Summary of the key concepts of scenario planning focal issue or question. Schoemaker regards scenario planning as a tool that rather aims at challenging current paradigms of thinking and develop and anticipate a series of stories in which attention is directed to aspects that. Within the past few years, each published a book addressing different.
The breadth of a scenario set can be tested by identifying extreme eventslowprobability, highimpact outcomesfrom the past 30 or 40 years and seeing whether the scenario set contains anything comparable. It is a pioneer in this field, and it wrote a book in 2001 where it explains the scenario planning process. Participants in scenario planning processes need to be encouraged to think. Simultaneously, it overcomes some of the weaknesses of traditional strategy plannin. Adam has taken scenario planning to a new level, beyond the con. There is benefit both in the process and in the product. A tool for strategic thinking among the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a whole range of possibilities in rich detail. The main purpose of this manual is to enhance the application of scenario process approach for research, learning and planning in the rural transformation through inter and multidisciplinary. Scenario planning is a process undertaken by a company to broaden its thinking about the future as a basis for developing and implementing robust strategies. In short, it is a perfect tool for todays increasingly uncertain and volatile world.
Scenario planning is a strategic planning tool or method for improving decision. The process of making plans and assumptions on the future of the business and keeping in mind the changes occurring in the work environment is known to be scenario planning. Using scenario planning to prepare for uncertainty in rural. Until recently, scenario planning has typically been used as part of the strategic planning process. Teams are formed, an organization is selected, and a list of strategy questions is prepared and narrowed to each teams overriding big question. Get answers you seek today in your free tarot reading. Transformative scenario planning i highly commend this book. Practical guide to participatory scenario planning care. The organization royal dutchshell which has been working with scenarios from 1970.
Explore moving forward, in 3d and augmented reality. Oct 18, 2019 the process of making plans and assumptions on the future of the business and keeping in mind the changes occurring in the work environment is known to be scenario planning. Learning from the future through scenario planning michael j blyth four scenes pty ltd march 2005 decisions made today are usually for an uncertain future. While the approach has a long history, it burst into the news in 1973. The methodological steps of scenario technique are not determined to a fixed set of process steps. Scenario planning is a management tool that is designed to allow organizations to evaluate the efficacy of strategies, tactics, and plans under a range of possible future environments. A successful scenario planning process relies upon the knowledge and expertise of stakeholders within the community to guide the development of scenario topics. The psp approach has been documented, implemented in kenya, ghana. Introduction to scenario planning linkedin slideshare.